Social Betting Lab

Build Your Own Odds

Estimate probabilities, attach theories, find value against the bookmakers and feed the optimize-anything loop with community insight.

Select match

⚽J. League 2/3 100 Year Vision Leagueupcoming

Sun 22 Feb · --:--

Your probability

1 · Yokohama FC33%

X · Draw45%

2 · Tochigi City FC22%

Fair odds: 1 3.03 · X 2.22 · 2 4.55

You vs market

1 (Yokohama FC)33.0% (-0.1pp)

X45.0% (+0.4pp)

2 (Tochigi City FC)22.0% (-0.3pp)

Value Scanner

Best available odds

Home

2.70

Provider 455

Draw

2.00

Provider 455

Away

4.00

Provider 455

Adjust sliders above to find value vs these odds.

EV & Kelly (Yokohama FC wins)

EV -10.9% · Kelly 0.0%

Theories (max 3)

Used as ASI in the optimize loop

Post your bet

UsernameOutcome

Rationale

Theories: none selected

Community Feed (0)

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Smart Picks

3 picks

Odds-implied form profile matched against historical results. When past matches had a similar strength gap, the outcome differed from what bookmakers price today.

Altach vs Wien

Bundesliga

+58.2%

Pick: Altach · Bet365 3.75 · Fair 2.37

Altach

42.2%

Draw

25.5%

Wien

32.3%

In 12,461 past matches between evenly-matched teams, the picked outcome hit 42% — but Bet365 prices it at only 27%.

12,461 matches · form gap 1Bet

Wien vs AC

Bundesliga

+34.4%

Pick: Rapid Wien · Bet365 2.50 · Fair 1.86

Wien

53.9%

Draw

23.2%

22.9%

In 4,877 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap moderate), the picked outcome hit 54% — but Bet365 prices it at only 40%.

4,877 matches · form gap 6Bet

Cluj vs Ploiesti

Superliga

+32.5%

Pick: CFR Cluj · Bet365 2.00 · Fair 1.51

Cluj

66.2%

Draw

17.1%

Ploiesti

16.7%

In 904 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap large), the picked outcome hit 66% — but Bet365 prices it at only 50%.

904 matches · form gap 11Bet

Community Consensus

No open posts for this match yet.

Aggregate of all open user estimates.

Leaderboard

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Optimize-Anything

Gen 1

✓ 154 real matches·154 form-signal

AI Pick (gen 1)

medium

Yokohama FC wins

Market implies YOK as slight favourite (xgDiff 0.42).

Home advantage supported by market pricing.

Theory signals: Tactical Matchup.

Form signal analysis

Home favoured (formDiff >3)60.5% (23/38)

Away favoured (formDiff <−3)35.0% (14/40)

Balanced form (|formDiff| ≤2)36.2% (17/47)

Accuracy

Baseline38.3%

Optimised38.3%(+0.0pp)

Learned rule

Base pick from market-implied xgDiff, tight-market → draw.

Misses → ASI

❌ 4882376: generic miss — predicted 2, actual 1.

❌ 4947775: generic miss — predicted X, actual 1.

❌ 4803576: generic miss — predicted X, actual 1.

Adjustments

→ Prefer draw when xG-diff is small and market odds are balanced.

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Use community + theories as ASI