Social Betting Lab

Build Your Own Odds

Estimate probabilities, attach theories, find value against the bookmakers and feed the optimize-anything loop with community insight.

Select match

⚽State Leaguesupcoming

Sat 21 Feb · --:--

Your probability

1 · Gama67%

X · Draw27%

2 · ARUC6%

Fair odds: 1 1.49 · X 3.70 · 2 16.67

You vs market

1 (Gama)67.0% (+0.0pp)

X27.0% (-0.1pp)

2 (ARUC)6.0% (+0.1pp)

Value Scanner

Best available odds

Home

1.33

Provider 455

Draw

3.30

Provider 455

Away

15.00

Provider 455

Adjust sliders above to find value vs these odds.

EV & Kelly (Gama wins)

EV -10.7% · Kelly 0.0%

Theories (max 3)

Used as ASI in the optimize loop

Post your bet

UsernameOutcome

Rationale

Theories: none selected

Community Feed (0)

⚡ Quick read — who wins?

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Smart Picks

2 picks

Odds-implied form profile matched against historical results. When past matches had a similar strength gap, the outcome differed from what bookmakers price today.

Gama vs ARUC

State Leagues

+105.5%

Pick: ARUC · Provider 455 15.00 · Fair 7.30

Gama

72.7%

Draw

13.7%

ARUC

13.7%

In 139 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap large), the picked outcome hit 14% — but Provider 455 prices it at only 7%.

139 matches · form gap 24Bet

EH vs St.Truiden

Jupiler Pro League

+31.8%

Pick: FCV Dender EH · Bet365 3.40 · Fair 2.58

38.7%

Draw

25.7%

St.Truiden

35.7%

In 9,917 past matches between away-favoured (strength gap moderate), the picked outcome hit 39% — but Bet365 prices it at only 29%.

9,917 matches · form gap 4Bet

Community Consensus

No open posts for this match yet.

Aggregate of all open user estimates.

Leaderboard

No settled bets yet.

Post your predictions below — bets settle automatically when matches finish. Your ROI is tracked here.

⚡ Bets auto-settle when matches finish. 👑 Verified Tipster: top ROI with ≥3 settled bets.

Optimize-Anything

Gen 1

✓ 152 real matches·152 form-signal

AI Pick (gen 1)

high

Gama wins

Market implies GAM as strong favourite (xgDiff 2.39).

Home advantage supported by market pricing.

Theory signals: Tactical Matchup.

Form signal analysis

Home favoured (formDiff >3)66.7% (20/30)

Away favoured (formDiff <−3)36.0% (9/25)

Balanced form (|formDiff| ≤2)23.3% (14/60)

Accuracy

Baseline32.2%

Optimised32.2%(+0.0pp)

Learned rule

Base pick from market-implied xgDiff, tight-market → draw.

Misses → ASI

❌ 4828074: tight-match — small xG gap suggested a draw-friendly game state.

❌ 5092920: generic miss — predicted X, actual 1.

❌ 4911205: generic miss — predicted X, actual 1.

Adjustments

→ Prefer draw when xG-diff is small and market odds are balanced.

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Use community + theories as ASI