Social Betting Lab

Build Your Own Odds

Estimate probabilities, attach theories, find value against the bookmakers and feed the optimize-anything loop with community insight.

Select match

⚽Liga Superupcoming

Sun 22 Feb · --:--

Your probability

1 · Selangor35%

X · Draw39%

2 · Kuching City26%

Fair odds: 1 2.86 · X 2.56 · 2 3.85

You vs market

1 (Selangor)35.0% (+0.4pp)

X39.0% (-0.5pp)

2 (Kuching City)26.0% (+0.1pp)

Value Scanner

Best available odds

Home

2.63

Provider 455

Draw

2.30

Provider 455

Away

3.50

Provider 455

Adjust sliders above to find value vs these odds.

EV & Kelly (Selangor wins)

EV -8.1% · Kelly 0.0%

Theories (max 3)

Used as ASI in the optimize loop

Post your bet

UsernameOutcome

Rationale

Theories: none selected

Community Feed (0)

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Smart Picks

3 picks

Odds-implied form profile matched against historical results. When past matches had a similar strength gap, the outcome differed from what bookmakers price today.

Altach vs Wien

Bundesliga

+58.2%

Pick: Altach · Bet365 3.75 · Fair 2.37

Altach

42.2%

Draw

25.5%

Wien

32.3%

In 12,461 past matches between evenly-matched teams, the picked outcome hit 42% — but Bet365 prices it at only 27%.

12,461 matches · form gap 1Bet

Wien vs AC

Bundesliga

+34.4%

Pick: Rapid Wien · Bet365 2.50 · Fair 1.86

Wien

53.9%

Draw

23.2%

22.9%

In 4,877 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap moderate), the picked outcome hit 54% — but Bet365 prices it at only 40%.

4,877 matches · form gap 6Bet

Cluj vs Ploiesti

Superliga

+32.5%

Pick: CFR Cluj · Bet365 2.00 · Fair 1.51

Cluj

66.2%

Draw

17.1%

Ploiesti

16.7%

In 904 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap large), the picked outcome hit 66% — but Bet365 prices it at only 50%.

904 matches · form gap 11Bet

Community Consensus

No open posts for this match yet.

Aggregate of all open user estimates.

Leaderboard

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Optimize-Anything

Gen 1

✓ 157 real matches·157 form-signal

AI Pick (gen 1)

medium

Selangor wins

Market implies SEL as slight favourite (xgDiff 0.33).

Home advantage supported by market pricing.

Theory signals: Tactical Matchup.

Form signal analysis

Home favoured (formDiff >3)73.9% (17/23)

Away favoured (formDiff <−3)36.6% (15/41)

Balanced form (|formDiff| ≤2)30.0% (15/50)

Accuracy

Baseline36.3%

Optimised36.3%(+0.0pp)

Learned rule

Base pick from market-implied xgDiff, tight-market → draw.

Misses → ASI

❌ 4935211: generic miss — predicted X, actual 1.

❌ 4965674: generic miss — predicted 1, actual 2.

❌ 4865000: generic miss — predicted 2, actual 1.

Adjustments

→ Prefer draw when xG-diff is small and market odds are balanced.

Recent training samples

Match	Form	Result
Orlando Pirates v Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League	+12	1
Atalanta v GenoaCoppa Italia	+3	1
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers FCA-League Men	+12	2
Terengganu v Brunei DPMMLiga Super	-5	1
SC Bastia v MontpellierLigue 2	+3	2

Use community + theories as ASI