Social Betting Lab

Build Your Own Odds

Estimate probabilities, attach theories, find value against the bookmakers and feed the optimize-anything loop with community insight.

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⚽Liga Superupcoming

Sun 22 Feb · --:--

Your probability

1 · Kuala Lumpur City52%

X · Draw33%

2 · Brunei DPMM15%

Fair odds: 1 1.92 · X 3.03 · 2 6.67

You vs market

1 (Kuala Lumpur City)52.0% (+0.1pp)

X33.0% (-0.2pp)

2 (Brunei DPMM)15.0% (+0.1pp)

Value Scanner

Best available odds

Home

1.73

Provider 455

Draw

2.70

Provider 455

Away

6.00

Provider 455

Adjust sliders above to find value vs these odds.

EV & Kelly (Kuala Lumpur City wins)

EV -10.2% · Kelly 0.0%

Theories (max 3)

Used as ASI in the optimize loop

Post your bet

UsernameOutcome

Rationale

Theories: none selected

Community Feed (0)

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Smart Picks

3 picks

Odds-implied form profile matched against historical results. When past matches had a similar strength gap, the outcome differed from what bookmakers price today.

Altach vs Wien

Bundesliga

+58.2%

Pick: Altach · Bet365 3.75 · Fair 2.37

Altach

42.2%

Draw

25.5%

Wien

32.3%

In 12,461 past matches between evenly-matched teams, the picked outcome hit 42% — but Bet365 prices it at only 27%.

12,461 matches · form gap 1Bet

Wien vs AC

Bundesliga

+34.4%

Pick: Rapid Wien · Bet365 2.50 · Fair 1.86

Wien

53.9%

Draw

23.2%

22.9%

In 4,877 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap moderate), the picked outcome hit 54% — but Bet365 prices it at only 40%.

4,877 matches · form gap 6Bet

Cluj vs Ploiesti

Superliga

+32.5%

Pick: CFR Cluj · Bet365 2.00 · Fair 1.51

Cluj

66.2%

Draw

17.1%

Ploiesti

16.7%

In 904 past matches between home-favoured (strength gap large), the picked outcome hit 66% — but Bet365 prices it at only 50%.

904 matches · form gap 11Bet

Community Consensus

No open posts for this match yet.

Aggregate of all open user estimates.

Leaderboard

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Optimize-Anything

Gen 1

✓ 154 real matches·154 form-signal

AI Pick (gen 1)

high

Kuala Lumpur City wins

Market implies KUA as strong favourite (xgDiff 1.44).

Home advantage supported by market pricing.

Form signal analysis

Home favoured (formDiff >3)50.0% (14/28)

Away favoured (formDiff <−3)40.7% (11/27)

Balanced form (|formDiff| ≤2)16.9% (10/59)

Accuracy

Baseline30.5%

Optimised30.5%(+0.0pp)

Learned rule

Base pick from market-implied xgDiff.

Misses → ASI

❌ 4832507: generic miss — predicted 1, actual 2.

❌ 4842210: generic miss — predicted X, actual 1.

❌ 4873763: generic miss — predicted 2, actual 1.

Adjustments

→ No strong failure mode found; baseline xgDiff rule is optimal.

Recent training samples

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Karcagi SE v Szeged-Csanad Grosics AkademiaNB II	+1	1
UE Olot v PoblenseSegunda Federacion - Group 3	-9	1

Use community + theories as ASI